Wednesday, October 12, 2016 / by John Burk
By James Brooks
The bond market is down 5/32 (1.79%), which should push today's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.
This morning has nothing of importance set for release, but we do have a couple of afternoon events taking place that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. First up is the 10-year Treasury Note auction results at 1:00 PM ET. If today’s sale was met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the broader bond market react positively, possibly leading to a slight improvement in mortgage pricing before the end of the day. On the other hand, a weak interest in the securities could cause bond selling and an upward revision to rates. Today’s sale will be followed by tomorrow’s 30-year Bond auction.
Next will be the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET. These may move the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key points traders are looking for are concerns over our and the global economies, inflation and the Fed's next monetary policy move (rate hike). It is worth noting though that the last FOMC meeting was followed by revised economic predictions and a press conference with Fed Chair Yellen. Therefore, the likelihood of seeing a significant surprise in the minutes is relatively low.
Tomorrow’s only report will be last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to show that 255,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week’s 249,000. The larger the number of claims, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims is a sign of a softening employment sector. However, this is only a weekly snapshot of the sector, so its influence on mortgage rates is often weak unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now.